So where's this difference coming from? It has to be the Patriots. Week 3 takeaways, big questions: Packers' late heroics, Ravens' record kick, Chiefs' turnover woes.Because the Buccaneers' loss came on the road against the Rams and Tampa Bay's offense was largely successful, the Bucs' FPI rating barely moved at all. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 50.5) at New England PatriotsĪt first blush, I assumed this was due to FPI moving on the Buccaneers and the oddsmakers holding steady, but I don't think that's actually it. So I'm keeping a running tally - for both games and futures - in this spot each week.Īll lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction.
That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.īecause we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring - like 3 and 7 being key numbers - but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement. That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off.
ET window so we can compare our numbers to those from Caesars Sportsbook. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week.
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